Before the Storm: The Presidential Race
October 25-28, 2012
· In polling conducted before Hurricane Sandy hit the east coast, the presidential contest shows little movement and remains close. President Barack Obama holds just a one point lead over Mitt Romney, within the poll’s margin of error.
· In this poll, Romney is viewed as stronger on the economy. The President does better on foreign policy areas, but his lead over Romney has narrowed on some measures. President Obama continues to have an advantage on empathy, but more see Romney as a strong leader.
· Women now support President Obama by eight points, while Romney has a seven point lead among men. Independents support Romney as well.
The Presidential Race
The poll was conducted in the days before Hurricane Sandy made landfall on the East Coast. In the poll, the presidential election remains close and little changed. President Obama has just a one point lead among likely voters, within the poll’s margin of error. Results of a CBS News Poll released last week were similar.
2012 Vote for President
(Among likely voters)
10/30 10/22 9/2012
Barack Obama 48% 48 % 49%
Mitt Romney 47 46 46
Undecided 3 4 4
With just a week to go before the election, 10% of likely voters are still uncommitted, saying they are either undecided or could change their minds about who to vote for.
Enthusiasm about voting is higher among supporters of Mitt Romney than it is among those supporting President Obama.
Enthusiastic about Voting
(Among likely voters)
Obama voters Romney voters
Very 59% 68%
Somewhat 29 20
Not too/not at all 11 11
Most likely voters now claim to be paying a lot of attention to the campaign, including similar percentages of Obama and Romney voters.
Attention to the Campaign
(Among likely voters)
Obama voters Romney voters
A lot 78% 79%
Some 17 20
Not much/none 5 1
About nine in 10 of each candidate’s supporters say their mind is made up.
Who is Supporting Who?
There is still a gender gap in the race: women support the President, while men support Romney, although each candidate’s lead is in single digits.
Each candidate gets strong support from their respective political parties, but Mitt Romney now holds a lead among the swing voting group of independents.
Romney retains the support of white voters, while the President enjoys strong support from non-whites.
Who Would You Vote for if the Candidates Were…?
(Among likely voters)
Obama Romney
Total 48% 47%
Men 44% 51
Women 52% 44
Republicans 6% 91
Democrats 93% 5
Independents 39% 51
Whites 39% 56
Non-whites 83% 14
The Candidates on the Issues
Mitt Romney now leads the president on the economy by six points; the two candidates were running closer on this issue earlier this month.
Romney continues his advantage on handling the deficit (and has widened it). He also leads the President on handling illegal immigration.
President Obama leads his Republican rival on foreign policy and terrorism, but his lead on those issues has narrowed. He also has an advantage on the issues of Medicare and abortion.
The candidates are close on taxes and health care.
Who Will Do a Better Job?
(Among likely voters)
Now Previously
Obama Romney Obama Romney
Economy and jobs 45% 51 45% 48 (10/22)
Foreign policy 49% 44 50% 41 (10/22)
Terrorism & security 49% 44 49% 42 (10/22)
Budget deficit 39% 54 42% 48 (10/22)
Health care 48% 45 50% 46 (9/14)
Taxes 46% 47 48% 46 (9/14)
Medicare 51% 42 50% 43 (9/14)
Abortion 51% 39 n/a n/a
Illegal immigration 42% 48 n/a n/a
The President continues to be seen as the candidate who would do more to help the middle class.
Who Will Do More to Help the Middle Class?
(Among likely voters)
Now 9/14
Obama 52% 54%
Romney 43 40
Romney, however, has an advantage on the issue of bipartisanship. By a large margin, voters think Romney rather than the President would work better with both Republicans and Democrats in Congress.
Who Will Work Better with Republicans & Democrats In Congress?
(Among likely voters)
All Reps Dems Inds
Obama 39% 6% 80% 27%
Romney 50 89 8 57
Voters’ views of the two candidates differ sharply on corporate taxes. 80% think President Obama would raise taxes on business if he were re-elected; 70% think Mitt Romney would not do so if he becomes president. About half think each man would raise taxes on people like them if elected.
Would He Raise Taxes on…
(Among likely voters)
People like you Businesses
Obama would 50% 80%
Obama would not 42 15
Romney would 52% 23%
Romney would not 44 70
Candidate Qualities
As has been the case throughout this campaign, President Obama continues to have an advantage over Romney on empathy: A majority says he understands the needs and problems of people like them. The President enjoys an even larger advantage when asked specifically about the needs of women in the workforce. However, more voters think Romney has strong qualities of leadership than say that about the President.
Obama vs. Romney: Empathy and Leadership
(Among likely voters)
Obama Romney
Strong qualities of leadership
Yes 59% 67%
No 39 30
Understands needs and problems
Yes 59% 49%
No 39 48
Understands needs & problems of
women in workforce
Yes 66% 46%
No 29 50
But some voters perceive Romney as pandering to voters. 54% of likely voters say Romney says what people want to hear, while 42% thinks he says what he believes. Views of the President on this characteristic are more closely divided.
Do the Candidates Mostly Say…
(Among likely voters)
Obama Romney
What he believes 50% 42%
What people want to hear 47 54
On handling an international crisis, more voters express a lot of confidence in the President than in Romney.
Confidence in Handling an International Crisis
(Among likely voters)
Barack Obama Mitt Romney
Now 10/22 Now 10/22
A lot 40% 38% 30% 30%
Some 22 24 27 28
A little 15 15 15 16
None at all 22 22 26 25
More than half of voters think each candidate has made it clear what he would accomplish if elected, but four in ten disagree.
Made Clear What They Would Accomplish
(Among likely voters)
Obama Romney
Yes 57% 53%
No 41 46
Overall, more than four in 10 likely voters describe each candidate’s positions as being about right. 42% think the President’s views are too liberal, while 35% think Romney’s are too conservative.
Among moderates, six in 10 say the President’s positions are about right. Fewer say that about Romney. In fact, 44% of moderates think Romney’s positions are too conservative for them.
Obama’s Views on Issues…
(Among likely voters)
All Lib Mod Cons
Too liberal 42% 2% 31% 74%
Not liberal enough 9 23 6 6
About right 46 75 60 17
Romney’s Views on Issues…
(Among likely voters)
All Lib Mod Cons
Too conservative 35% 75% 44% 7%
Not conservative enough 15 9 10 23
About right 45 9 40 68
The Debates
Two in three likely voters say the presidential and vice presidential debates have been important in their presidential vote decision, including 34% who say the debates have been very important.
Among those who say they were important, Romney has a slight lead, 51% to 45%, over President Obama.
The President
The Obama administration receives negative marks for their handling of the recent attacks in Libya. Just 39% of Americans approve of how they have handled that, and more, 45%, disapprove. About three in 4 Americans have heard or read a lot about the attacks.
Obama Administration’s Handling of Libya Attacks
(Among all)
All Reps Dems Inds
Approve 39% 12% 66% 32%
Disapprove 45 77 18 48
Evaluations of the administration on this measure are more negative among likely voters. Just 38% of them approve, and 51% disapprove, including 57% of independents.
The President’s approval rating overall is 50%; 42% disapprove.
___________________________________________________________________
This poll was conducted by telephone from October 25-28, 2012 among 898 adults nationwide, including 798 registered voters. The sample size for likely voters is 563. Not all likely voters are assigned the same probability of voting. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. CBS News and The New York Times originally intended for the interviewing for this poll to continue through Tuesday evening. By Sunday the demographic characteristics of the sample were similar to what would have been expected had interviewing continued.
The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. Among registered voters and likely voters, the error due to sampling could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher. Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL
Before the Storm: The Presidential Race
October 25 – 28, 2012
>attn< How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2012 Presidential campaign -- a lot, some, not much, or no attention so far?
** LIKELY VOTERS **
***** Party ID *****
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
A lot 78 80 79 73
Some 19 19 15 22
Not much 3 1 5 4
No attention so far 0 0 0 0
DK/NA 0 0 0 0
q1 Thinking about November's presidential election, overall, would you say you are very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all about voting?
Very 62 72 67 49
Somewhat 24 16 26 29
Not too 9 8 5 15
Not at all 3 1 2 5
DK/NA 2 2 1 2
q2 Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in the 2012 presidential election this year -- are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual?
More enthusiastic 50 60 43 47
Less enthusiastic 14 9 8 25
Same 36 31 48 27
DK/NA 1 0 1 0
q3 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE
q4/q5 If the 2012 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice President, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for President and Paul Ryan for Vice President, the Republicans, would you vote for Barack Obama and Joe Biden or Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan? If “DEPENDS” or “DON’T KNOW”: Well as of today, do you lean more toward Barack Obama and Joe Biden or more toward Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan?
Obama/Biden 48 6 93 39
Romney/Ryan 47 91 5 51
Won't vote (Vol.) 0 0 0 1
Other (Vol.) 1 0 0 2
DK/NA 3 2 1 7
q6 Is your mind made up or is it still too early to say for sure?
** LIKELY VOTERS **
Obama Romney
Total Voters Voters
% % %
Mind made up 93 90 95
Too early to say for sure 7 10 4
DK/NA 0 0 0
q7 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE
q8 Would you describe your support for [Selected Candidate] as strongly favoring [Selected Candidate], or do you like [Selected Candidate] but with reservations, or do you support [Selected Candidate] because you dislike [Candidate NOT Selected]?
* LIKELY VOTERS **
Obama Romney
Total Voters Voters
% % %
Strongly favor 63 68 57
Like but with reservations 22 19 25
Dislike other candidate 14 12 17
Don't know/No answer 1 1 1
q9 Regardless of how you intend to vote for President in 2012, who do you expect to finally win the 2012 presidential election-Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?
** LIKELY VOTERS **
***** Party ID *****
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
Mitt Romney 36 70 6 37
Barack Obama 49 15 83 44
Depends (Vol.) 4 2 4 7
Don't know/No answer 11 13 7 12
q10 As far as making progress on the important issues facing the country is concerned, does it really matter who wins the 2012 presidential election, or will things be pretty much the same regardless of who is elected president?
* REGISTERED VOTERS *
***** Party ID *****
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
Really matters who wins 72 76 78 61
Things will pretty much same 25 21 17 36
DK/NA 3 3 4 3
q12/Q13 If the 2012 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?/ Well as of today, do you lean more toward the Republican candidate or more toward the Democratic candidate?
** LIKELY VOTERS **
**** Party ID *****
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
Republican 46 91 4 49
Democratic 48 7 94 38
Other (vol.) 0 0 0 1
Won't Vote (vol.) 0 0 0 1
Depends (vol.) 3 1 2 7
DK/NA 2 2 1 4
q14 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
*** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ***
***** Party ID *****
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
Approve 50 9 89 42
Disapprove 42 88 5 44
DK/NA 8 3 5 13
q15 Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?
Right direction 39 6 73 30
Wrong track 54 89 17 63
DK/NA 7 4 10 7
q16 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling foreign policy?
Approve 47 11 81 41
Disapprove 41 83 7 44
DK/NA 12 6 12 16
q17 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
Approve 46 9 83 37
Disapprove 47 88 10 53
DK/NA 7 3 7 10
q18 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?
Approve 15 17 18 11
Disapprove 75 73 71 79
DK/NA 10 10 10 10
q19 How would you rate the condition of the national economy these days? Is it very good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad?
** TOTAL RESPONDENTS **
***** Party ID ****
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
Very good 2 0 6 0
Fairly good 30 11 50 24
Fairly bad 36 39 31 38
Very bad 31 49 12 36
DK/NA 1 1 1 2
q20 Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
Better 36 13 63 27
Worse 28 47 6 35
Same 35 39 30 37
DK/NA 1 1 2 0
q22 Which comes closest to your view about the tax cuts passed in 2001 and 2003? 1. The tax cuts should be continued for everyone. 2. The tax cuts should only continue for household incomes under $250,000 a year. 3.The tax cuts should expire for everyone.
Continue for all 35 56 20 33
Continue for under $250,000 42 28 53 41
Expire for all 15 11 20 14
Don't know/No answer 8 5 7 11
q23 Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are currently working in the U.S.? 1. They should be allowed to stay in their jobs and to eventually apply for U.S. citizenship. 2. They should be allowed to stay in their jobs only as guest workers, but not to apply for U.S. citizenship. 3. They should be required to leave their jobs and leave the U.S.
Allowed to stay and apply 51 39 67 44
Stay as guest worker 20 21 16 23
Required to leave 24 33 14 28
Don't know/No answer 5 7 3 6
q24 Overall, what do you think is the best way to reduce the federal budget deficit--by cutting federal spending, by increasing taxes, or by a combination of both?
Cut federal spending 30 46 18 30
Raising taxes 2 2 1 2
Combination of both 64 50 77 61
Don't know/No answer 5 2 5 6
q27 Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Barack Obama yet to have an opinion?
** LIKELY VOTERS **
***** Party ID *****
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
Favorable 46 5 91 35
Not favorable 46 90 4 48
Undecided 7 2 4 15
Haven't heard enough 1 0 1 2
Refused 1 2 0 1
q28 Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Mitt Romney yet to have an opinion?
Favorable 44 85 7 44
Not favorable 43 9 79 36
Undecided 11 3 11 17
Haven't heard enough 3 3 3 2
Refused 0 1 0 0
q29 Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Joe Biden yet to have an opinion?
Favorable 37 6 74 27
Not favorable 43 83 5 46
Undecided 10 4 8 19
Haven't heard enough 10 7 14 8
Refused 0 1 0 0
q30 Is your opinion of Paul Ryan favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Paul Ryan yet to have an opinion?
Favorable 35 73 5 32
Not favorable 34 5 63 29
Undecided 11 7 7 20
Haven't heard enough 20 15 25 19
Refused 0 1 0 0
q31 In deciding how you will vote for President this year, which ONE of the following issues will be most important to you: 1. terrorism, 2. foreign policy, 3. the economy, 4. the budget deficit, 5. taxes, 6. health care, 7. education or 8. something else?
Terrorism 2 2 2 2
Foreign policy 5 5 2 7
The economy 51 66 39 49
Budget deficit 8 10 4 10
Taxes 3 3 4 2
Health care 15 11 20 15
Education 10 1 22 5
Something else 5 3 4 9
DK/NA 2 1 3 3
q32 And which one of the following issues will be NEXT most important to you: 1. terrorism, 2. foreign policy, 3. the economy, 4. the budget deficit, 5. taxes, 6. health care, 7. education or 8. something else?
AMONG LIKELY VOTERS WHO CHOSE ECONOMY AS TOP ISSUE IN Q31
%
Terrorism 9
Foreign policy 15
The economy 2
Budget deficit 21
Taxes 13
Health care 27
Education 12
Something else 0
DK/NA 1
q33 Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do a better job handling each of the following issues - Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Which candidate would do a better job handling the economy and unemployment?
** LIKELY VOTERS **
***** Party ID *****
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
Obama 45 5 89 37
Romney 51 94 8 56
Both (vol.) 1 1 2 1
Neither (vol.) 1 0 0 2
DK/NA 2 0 1 5
q34 Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate would do a better job handling health care?
Obama 48 8 88 44
Romney 45 86 6 50
Both (vol.) 1 1 1 1
Neither (vol.) 2 4 0 2
DK/NA 3 2 4 4
q35 Which candidate do you think would do a better job handling the federal budget deficit -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
(IF NECESSARY: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do a better job handling the federal budget deficit -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?)
Obama 39 5 80 28
Romney 54 93 13 61
Both (vol.) 1 1 2 1
Neither (vol.) 2 1 2 4
DK/NA 4 0 3 7
q36 Which candidate would do a better job handling foreign policy?
(IF NECESSARY: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do a better job handling foreign policy – Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?)
** LIKELY VOTERS **
***** Party ID *****
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
Obama 49 8 88 47
Romney 44 86 7 43
Both (vol.) 1 1 0 1
Neither (vol.) 1 2 0 2
DK/NA 5 3 5 7
q37 Which candidate would do a better job handling taxes?
(IF NECESSARY: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do a better job handling taxes -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?)
Obama 46 6 85 40
Romney 47 88 11 47
Both (vol.) 1 2 0 1
Neither (vol.) 2 2 1 3
DK/NA 4 2 2 9
q38 Which candidate would do a better job handling Medicare?
(IF NECESSARY: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do a better job handling Medicare -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?)
Obama 51 11 91 46
Romney 42 84 5 43
Both (vol.) 1 1 0 2
Neither (vol.) 2 1 1 3
DK/NA 4 3 3 7
q39 Which candidate do you think would do more to help middle classAmericans?
(IF NECESSARY: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do more to help middle class Americans -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?)
Obama 52 10 94 47
Romney 43 88 4 43
Both (vol.) 1 1 0 1
Neither (vol.) 1 1 0 2
DK/NA 4 1 1 8
q40 Which candidate do you think would do a better job of dealing with the issue of abortion?
(IF NECESSARY: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do a better job of dealing the issue of abortion -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?)
Obama 51 13 89 46
Romney 39 76 7 38
Both (vol.) 0 1 0 0
Neither (vol.) 1 1 0 2
DK/NA 9 9 4 14
q41 Which candidate do you think would do a better job of dealing with illegal immigration?
(IF NECESSARY: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do a better job of dealing with illegal immigration -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?)
** LIKELY VOTERS **
***** Party ID *****
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
Obama 42 4 81 36
Romney 48 88 11 49
Both (vol.) 1 1 1 1
Neither (vol.) 3 3 2 5
DK/NA 6 4 4 8
q42 Which candidate do you think would do a better job of dealing with terrorism and national security?
(IF NECESSARY: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do a better job of dealing with terrorism and national security -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?)
Obama 49 10 89 42
Romney 44 85 6 46
Both (vol.) 2 2 2 2
Neither (vol.) 1 0 1 2
DK/NA 5 3 2 8
q43 Which candidate do you think would work better with both Democrats and Republicans in Congress?
(IF NECESSARY: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would work better with both Democrats and Republicans in Congress - Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?)
Obama 39 6 80 27
Romney 50 89 8 57
Both (vol.) 2 3 2 2
Neither (vol.) 3 1 3 6
DK/NA 5 1 6 9
q46 Do you think Barack Obama has strong qualities of leadership, or not?
Has 59 24 94 56
Does not have 39 75 4 42
Don't know/No answer 2 1 1 2
q47 Do you think Barack Obama does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself?
Yes 59 21 93 59
No 39 77 7 39
DK/NA 2 2 0 2
q48 Do you think Barack Obama says what he believes most of the time, or does he say what he thinks people want to hear?
Says what he believes 50 17 90 38
What people want to hear 47 81 8 57
Don't know/No answer 3 1 2 5
q49 How much confidence do you have in Barack Obama's ability to handle an international crisis -- a lot, some, a little, or none at all?
** LIKELY VOTERS **
***** Party ID *****
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
A lot 40 6 83 26
Some 22 19 12 36
A little 15 26 2 19
None at all 22 48 1 19
Don't know/No answer 1 2 1 1
q50 Do you think Barack Obama has made it clear what he wants to accomplish if he were re-elected President, or not?
Clear 57 37 82 48
Not clear 41 63 16 47
Don't know/No answer 2 0 1 5
q51 Do you think Barack Obama's views on most issues are too liberal for you, not liberal enough, or just about right?
Too liberal 42 77 4 48
Not liberal enough 9 9 10 8
About right 46 10 84 39
Don't know/No answer 3 4 1 5
q52 How much confidence do you have in Barack Obama's ability to make appointments to the Supreme Court -- a lot, some, a little, or none at all?
A lot 40 6 81 27
Some 19 14 13 29
A little 9 18 4 6
None at all 30 58 2 34
DK/NA 2 3 0 4
q53 If he were re-elected President, do you think Barack Obama would raise taxes on people like yourself, or wouldn't he do that?
Would 50 79 18 56
Would not 42 13 74 37
DK/NA 8 8 8 7
q54 If he were re-elected President, do you think Barack Obama would raise taxes on big business, or wouldn't he do that?
Would 80 82 75 82
Would not 15 15 19 10
DK/NA 6 3 6 8
q55 Do you think Barack Obama understands the needs and problems of women in the work force, or not?
Yes 66 40 92 63
No 29 51 7 32
Don't know/No answer 5 10 1 5
q58 Do you think Mitt Romney has strong qualities of leadership, or not?
** LIKELY VOTERS **
***** Party ID *****
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
Has 67 94 38 73
Does not have 30 5 57 25
Don't know/No answer 3 1 6 2
q59 Do you think Mitt Romney does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself?
Yes 49 86 16 51
No 48 13 83 44
DK/NA 2 2 1 5
q60 Do you think Mitt Romney says what he believes most of the time, or does he say what he thinks people want to hear?
Says what he believes 42 74 12 45
What people want to hear 54 23 85 51
Don't know/No answer 3 3 3 4
q61 How much confidence do you have in Mitt Romney's ability to handle an international crisis -- a lot, some, a little, or none at all?
A lot 30 64 5 27
Some 27 28 21 33
A little 15 5 21 17
None at all 26 3 52 19
Don't know/No answer 2 1 1 4
q62 Do you think Mitt Romney has made it clear what he wants to accomplish if he were elected president, or not?
Yes 53 83 28 51
No 46 16 71 46
Don't know/No answer 2 1 1 3
q63 Do you think Mitt Romney's views on most issues are too conservative for you, not conservative enough, or just about right?
Too conservative 35 5 60 37
Not conservative enough 15 12 22 10
About right 45 82 9 47
Don't know/No answer 6 1 9 6
q64 How much confidence do you have in Mitt Romney's ability to make appointments to the Supreme Court -- a lot, some, a little, or none at all?
A lot 31 65 7 26
Some 27 27 17 36
A little 11 3 16 12
None at all 29 3 58 23
DK/NA 2 2 3 3
q65 If he were elected President, do you think Mitt Romney would raise taxes on people like yourself, or wouldn't he do that?
** LIKELY VOTERS **
**** Party ID ***
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
Would 52 25 80 47
Would not 44 71 16 48
DK/NA 4 4 4 4
q66 If he were elected President, do you think Mitt Romney would raise taxes on big business, or wouldn't he do that?
Would 23 28 20 22
Would not 70 59 78 72
DK/NA 7 14 2 6
q67 Do you think Mitt Romney understands the needs and problems of women in the work force, or not?
Yes 46 83 14 44
No 50 13 83 50
Don't know/No answer 4 4 3 5
q68 If elected, how closely do you think Mitt Romney would follow the economic policies of George W. Bush--very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely or not at all closely?
Very closely 27 9 51 19
Somewhat closely 40 49 31 40
Not too closely 18 30 8 18
Not at all closely 12 10 7 19
DK/NA 4 3 3 5
q69 Since he became the Republican nominee, do you think Mitt Romney has become more moderate in his positions, more conservative, or hasn't he changed his positions?
More moderate 33 31 35 33
More conservative 18 16 16 21
Hasn't changed 40 52 34 35
More liberal (Vol.) 0 0 1 0
DK/NA 8 1 13 10
q70 Since becoming president, do you think Barack Obama has become more moderate in his positions, more liberal, or hasn't he changed his positions?
More moderate 26 13 31 32
More liberal 25 43 12 22
Hasn't changed 44 40 51 41
More conservative (Vol.) 1 0 2 0
DK/NA 4 4 4 5
q71 Which comes closest to your view of Barack Obama's economic policies? 1. They are improving the economy now, and will probably continue to do so, or 2. They have not improved the economy yet, but will if given more time, or 3. They are not improving the economy and probably never will.
** TOTAL RESPONDENTS **
***** Party ID *****
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
Improving economy 31 6 59 22
Not improved but will 27 14 32 31
Not improving and never will 38 74 5 44
Made economy worse (Vol.) 1 3 0 1
Don't know/No answer 3 2 3 3
q73 How much have you heard or read about the recent attack on the American consulate in Libya and the killing of the U.S. ambassador - a lot, some, or not much?
** TOTAL RESPONDENTS **
***** Party ID *****
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
A lot 47 61 39 45
Some 30 24 36 29
Not much 21 15 25 23
None at all (Vol.) 2 0 1 3
DK/NA 0 1 0 0
q74 Do you approve or disapprove of how the Obama Administration hashandled the recent attacks in Libya?
Approve 39 12 66 32
Disapprove 45 77 18 48
DK/NA 16 10 16 20
q75 Which of these comes closest to your view? 1. Abortion should be generally available to those who want it. 2. Abortion should be available but under stricter limits than it is now. 3. Abortion should not be permitted.
Generally available 46 29 62 42
Available but limits 32 42 24 33
Should not be permitted 20 28 12 21
Don't know/No answer 2 1 1 4
q76 What would you like to see Congress do when it comes to the health care law? 1. Expand the health care law, OR 2. Keep the entire health care law as it is, OR 3. Repeal the part of the law that requires Americans to obtain health insurance if they don't have it, but keep the rest of the law intact, OR 4. Repeal the entire health care law.
Expand the law 22 6 36 21
Keep entire law in place 21 6 36 17
Repeal the mandate only 19 22 15 21
Repeal the entire law 29 59 4 31
DK/NA 8 7 8 10
q77 In order to keep Medicare financially sound, do you think it will be necessary or not necessary to make changes to the program? IF YES: Do you think major changes or minor changes will be necessary?
** TOTAL RESPONDENTS **
***** Party ID *****
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
Major changes 39 52 26 42
Minor changes 39 35 45 37
No changes 13 6 21 10
Don't know/No answer 9 8 8 11
q78 Which of these two descriptions comes closer to your view of what Medicare should look like for people who are now under 55 who would be eligible for Medicare coverage in about ten years? 1. Medicare should continue as it is today, with the government providing seniors with health insurance, OR, 2. Medicare should be changed to a system in which the government would provide seniors with a fixed amount of money toward purchasing private health insurance or Medicare insurance.
Should continue as is 63 46 80 60
Should be changed 29 44 16 31
DK/NA 7 10 4 9
q79 From what you’ve heard or read, do you think Barack Obama is removing U.S. troops from Afghanistan too quickly, not quickly enough, or is he handling this about right?
Too quickly 17 35 4 17
Not quickly enough 24 28 18 28
About right 52 29 76 47
Don't know/No answer 6 8 2 8
q80 Thinking about Iran, which comes closer to your opinion? 1. Iran is a threat to the United States that requires military action now. 2. Iran is a threat that can be contained with diplomacy now. 3. Iran is not a threat to the United States at this time.
Threat requiring action now 20 30 11 23
Threat that can be contained 55 59 60 48
Not a threat at this time 16 9 21 16
DK/NA 8 2 8 13
q83 Compared to past presidential campaigns, do you think the campaign this year has been more positive, more negative, or about the same as past campaigns?
More positive 10 8 16 5
More negative 45 44 44 47
About the same 42 46 37 45
DK/NA 3 2 3 3
q86 Have you been contacted on behalf of either Presidential candidate over the past couple of weeks whether it was by a letter, by e-mail, by telephone, or in person by a campaign worker?
Yes, Romney 10 21 3 8
Yes, Obama 13 4 26 7
Yes, both 21 17 20 25
No contact 54 56 50 57
Don't know/No answer 2 3 0 3
q87 How concerned are you that you will encounter problems that might prevent you from voting or prevent your vote from being counted accurately - very concerned, somewhat concerned, not very concerned, or not at all concerned?
** TOTAL RESPONDENTS **
***** Party ID ***** Likely
Total Rep Dem Ind Voters
% % % % %
Very 11 8 14 9 10
Somewhat 17 14 19 16 17
Not very 13 12 12 15 13
Not at all 57 64 52 57 59
DK/NA 2 2 3 2 1
q88 In general, would you say the presidential and vice presidential debates have been very important, somewhat important, not very important or not important at all in your voting decision for President?
** LIKELY VOTERS **
***** Party ID *****
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
Very 34 36 38 29
Somewhat 32 36 29 31
Not very 12 8 11 17
Not at all 21 19 21 23
DK/NA 0 0 0 1
q89 Which one of the following is your main source of political news and information -- Television, Internet, newspaper, radio, talking with others or social media like Facebook and Twitter?
*** REGISTERED VOTERS ***
***** Party ID *****
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
Television 58 61 65 47
Internet 21 16 16 29
Newspaper 7 8 8 7
Radio 5 9 2 6
Talking with others 3 4 3 3
Social media like Facebook 4 1 4 7
Don't follow politics 0 0 0 1
Other source (Vol.) 0 1 0 1
DK/NA 1 0 1 1
Unweighted Weighted
Total Respondents 898
Total Republicans 257 242
Total Democrats 297 321
Total Independents 344 335
Total Registered Voters 798
Total Likely Voters 563
Republican likely voters 175 (31%)
Democratic likely voters 200 (36%)
Independent likely voters 188 (33%)
